We opened positions at twelve operators across football, basketball and tennis, and at set points during each event recorded the cash-out offer alongside the fair value of the position — stake times original price times the current probability at the sharpest live market we could see. A hundred and eighty comparisons. The average offer was 6.4% below fair value, and the range was wide.
Marlin and Stadion, the two operators whose cash-out coverage is broadest, were also the fairest at 4.1% and 4.4% below fair value. Three operators in the guide averaged over 9%, and one exceeded 12% on positions in the final ten minutes of football matches, when the live market is thinnest and the offer is most tempting. Partial cash-out carried the same haircut on the fraction sold at every operator we tested.
None of this makes cash-out useless. It makes it a trade with a price, and the price is now on every review in the live-betting section. The cash-out guide sets out the two situations in which taking it is still correct and the several in which it is not.
