Two summers ago the point-by-point tennis markets we measure carried a 6% overround on average across the operators that offered them. This July the figure is 4.5%, and at Lanterna — the tennis specialist in our guide — it is 4.1%. In-play tennis has gone from one of the most expensive markets in the guide to one that competes with pre-match football.
The cause is data. Operators now receive point-level feeds within a second of the umpire’s call, and the pricing models built on them have matured. Two years ago the margin covered uncertainty about what had just happened on court; now it covers only the ordinary house edge. The operators that have not invested in the feed still price at 6% and above, and our monthly measurement names them.
It changes which account a tennis bettor should hold. Lanterna streams every Continental Tour and Women’s Tour match and prices game and set handicaps tighter than the generalists; Kestrel prices the pre-match markets sharpest; Stadion refreshes fastest in play. The sport page on this site ranks the fifteen on tennis specifically, and the retirement-rules guide covers the one rule that still varies more between operators than the price does.
