A half-goal handicap on a home side that has beaten this opponent by three, three and four in the last three meetings. The market priced a two-goal margin as a coin toss; the recent history said it was a good deal more likely than that.
Why the −1.5
Montjuic had won by two or more in six of eight home league games, and Guadal CF had conceded twice or more in five straight away matches before losing their first-choice centre back for a month. The −1 line at 1.60 offered a push on a one-goal win; the −1.5 at 1.95 asked for the second goal outright. With three of the last three meetings won by three or more, the extra price was worth the missing push.
Form
For and against are goals per game across the last five league matches.
Head to head
Team news
Montjuic
- InFull squadNo injuries after pre-season
Guadal CF
- OutBaldiri (hamstring, 4 weeks)First-choice centre back
Key numbers
How it went
One goal by half-time, a second on fifty-eight minutes that cleared the line, and a third late on for comfort. The uncomfortable stretch was the twenty minutes after the break in which Guadal CF had the better of it at 1–0 — the scenario in which the −1 would have pushed and this bet would have lost. Two bars rather than three was the right rating.
