A handicap each-way bet on a horse that ran well in the race a year ago off a higher mark, on ground that had come right for him by the Tuesday. He drifted to 11.00 and finished ninth, and the drift told us more than we admitted at the time.
Why the each-way
Fourth in this race last year beaten under three lengths off a mark 3lb higher, a win over further at Fernbrook since, and a trainer whose record at this meeting is well above his average. With Tallow paying five places at a fifth of the odds and best odds guaranteed, the place half of a 9.00 each-way covered a run to the frame at 2.60 while the win half kept the upside. One bar of confidence, because a twenty-runner handicap is exactly that.
Form
Head to head
Key numbers
What went wrong
The ground dried again overnight and the market noticed before we did — he drifted from 9.00 to 11.00 by the off, and our news desk’s market-movement column covered the move. He was never travelling and finished ninth. Best odds guaranteed paid the bigger price, which is a comfort only in principle when the horse finishes out of the places. The lesson, recorded in the column, is that a Tuesday-morning drift on a ground-dependent horse is information, not noise.
