A distance bet on a heavyweight main event, one bar of confidence, and a second-round submission. The argument was reasonable and the result was the one the market had priced as slightly more likely; that is what one bar means.
Why the distance
Vasquez’s reach and range control had taken four of his last six fights to the judges, and Alveira — a finisher by reputation — had been taken past the second round twice this year by opponents with a fraction of Vasquez’s experience. The market priced the distance at 2.05, a shade under evens; we made it a slight favourite on the basis that Vasquez does not get caught early and Alveira does not finish fighters who keep him at range.
Form
Head to head
Key numbers
What went wrong
Alveira closed the range with a single-leg in the second, and from top position the finish took ninety seconds. The scenario that beats a distance bet in heavyweight MMA is a takedown against a striker who does not want the floor, and that is exactly what a one-bar rating is for. The early markets on a small card are thin and move hard on late news; the fight-week price, at 1.95, would have been a slightly smaller loss.
