SportPulse

Nobody wants to defend a lead any more

0% · 1 min read

The long read1 min read

Nobody wants to defend a lead any more

Eleven of the last fourteen leads at half time were surrendered. That is not variance.

Eleven of the last fourteen leads at half time were surrendered. That is not variance. That is a division that has decided, collectively, that a one-goal lead is a problem to be solved by scoring another.

The numbers

Teams leading at the break are winning 54% of matches this season, down from 71% five seasons ago. Expected goals conceded in the second half by leading teams has risen every year in between.

// Leading at half time

54%

Win rate, this season

71%

Win rate, five seasons ago

+0.4

xG conceded after the break, change

Why

Because the coaches were hired to press, and pressing is a thing you do with the ball or without it, not a thing you stop doing at 1–0. The block that used to protect a lead is now a formation nobody has practised.

Empty seats in the 80th minute are the other number that has changed.

The exception

One club. They have not conceded a second-half goal from a winning position all season, and their manager is the only one in the division who was a defender.