Everything else is noise dressed as evidence — and the clubs know it. Closing line value is the one recruitment metric that survives a bad week, because it measures the decision rather than the outcome.
What it measures
Take the price a player was valued at when the club first moved, and the price the market settled on when the window closed. The difference is the club’s edge, or the absence of one.
// This window, so far
+11%
Average edge, top four
−6%
Average edge, bottom four
31
Deals measured
Why outcomes lie
A signing who scores fifteen goals in a bad process is still a bad process. Over a decade, the clubs that measure decisions rather than goals are the ones that stop paying for the fifteen.
The catch
It only works if you are honest about the first number. Most clubs are not.