{"id":18298,"date":"2026-08-29T16:44:37","date_gmt":"2026-08-29T15:44:37","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/localhost:8888\/nobody-defends-lead\/"},"modified":"2026-08-29T16:44:37","modified_gmt":"2026-08-29T15:44:37","slug":"nobody-defends-lead","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/preview.sportpulse.anpsthemes.com\/news\/nobody-defends-lead\/","title":{"rendered":"Nobody wants to defend a lead any more"},"content":{"rendered":"

Eleven of the last fourteen leads at half time were surrendered. That is not variance. That is a division that has decided, collectively, that a one-goal lead is a problem to be solved by scoring another.<\/p>\n\n

The numbers<\/h2>\n\n

Teams leading at the break are winning 54% of matches this season, down from 71% five seasons ago. Expected goals conceded in the second half by leading teams has risen every year in between.<\/p>\n\n

\/\/ Leading at half time<\/p><\/div>

54%<\/p>

Win rate, this season<\/p><\/div>

71%<\/p>

Win rate, five seasons ago<\/p><\/div>

+0.4<\/p>

xG conceded after the break, change<\/p><\/div><\/div><\/div>\n\n

Why<\/h2>\n\n

Because the coaches were hired to press, and pressing is a thing you do with the ball or without it, not a thing you stop doing at 1\u20130. The block that used to protect a lead is now a formation nobody has practised.<\/p>\n\n

\"\"
Empty seats in the 80th minute are the other number that has changed.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n

The exception<\/h2>\n\n

One club. They have not conceded a second-half goal from a winning position all season, and their manager is the only one in the division who was a defender.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Eleven of the last fourteen leads at half time were surrendered. That is not variance.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":18186,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_spx_person_id":0,"_spx_fixture_id":0,"_spx_pick_id":0,"_spx_eg_facts_label":"","_spx_eg_facts":"","_spx_figure_caption":"","_spx_news_feat":"","_spx_video_url":"","_spx_duration":"","_spx_views":"","_spx_presenter":"","_spx_media_state":"","_spx_start_at":"","_spx_media_status":"","_spx_episode":"","_spx_subject":"","_spx_subject_role":"","_spx_story_year":"","_spx_duration_seconds":0,"_spx_view_count":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[58],"tags":[91,148,235],"spx_comp":[],"spx_fixture_ref":[],"spx_series":[],"spx_format":[310],"spx_video_kind":[],"spx_show":[],"spx_sport":[],"spx_flag":[],"class_list":["post-18298","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-soccer","tag-analytics","tag-game-state","tag-tactics","spx_format-long-read"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/preview.sportpulse.anpsthemes.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/18298","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/preview.sportpulse.anpsthemes.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/preview.sportpulse.anpsthemes.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/preview.sportpulse.anpsthemes.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/4"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/preview.sportpulse.anpsthemes.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=18298"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/preview.sportpulse.anpsthemes.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/18298\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/preview.sportpulse.anpsthemes.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/18186"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/preview.sportpulse.anpsthemes.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=18298"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/preview.sportpulse.anpsthemes.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=18298"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/preview.sportpulse.anpsthemes.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=18298"},{"taxonomy":"spx_comp","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/preview.sportpulse.anpsthemes.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/spx_comp?post=18298"},{"taxonomy":"spx_fixture_ref","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/preview.sportpulse.anpsthemes.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/spx_fixture_ref?post=18298"},{"taxonomy":"spx_series","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/preview.sportpulse.anpsthemes.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/spx_series?post=18298"},{"taxonomy":"spx_format","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/preview.sportpulse.anpsthemes.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/spx_format?post=18298"},{"taxonomy":"spx_video_kind","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/preview.sportpulse.anpsthemes.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/spx_video_kind?post=18298"},{"taxonomy":"spx_show","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/preview.sportpulse.anpsthemes.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/spx_show?post=18298"},{"taxonomy":"spx_sport","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/preview.sportpulse.anpsthemes.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/spx_sport?post=18298"},{"taxonomy":"spx_flag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/preview.sportpulse.anpsthemes.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/spx_flag?post=18298"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}