{"id":38283,"date":"2026-07-31T10:00:00","date_gmt":"2026-07-31T09:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/localhost:8888\/prediction\/vas-alv\/"},"modified":"2026-07-31T10:00:00","modified_gmt":"2026-07-31T09:00:00","slug":"vas-alv","status":"publish","type":"spx_prediction","link":"https:\/\/preview.sportpulse.anpsthemes.com\/betting\/prediction\/vas-alv\/","title":{"rendered":"Vasquez vs Alveira \u2014 Fight to go the distance"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"anps-post-betting__lead wp-block-paragraph\">A distance bet on a heavyweight main event, one bar of confidence, and a second-round submission. The argument was reasonable and the result was the one the market had priced as slightly more likely; that is what one bar means.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"why\">Why the distance<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Vasquez\u2019s reach and range control had taken four of his last six fights to the judges, and Alveira \u2014 a finisher by reputation \u2014 had been taken past the second round twice this year by opponents with a fraction of Vasquez\u2019s experience. The market priced the distance at 2.05, a shade under evens; we made it a slight favourite on the basis that Vasquez does not get caught early and Alveira does not finish fighters who keep him at range.<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"is-form anps-betting-match-panel wp-block-sportpulse-betting-match-panel\"><h2 class=\"anps-betting-match-panel__heading\" id=\"form\">Form<\/h2><div class=\"anps-betting-match-panel__table anps-betting-card\"><div class=\"anps-betting-match-panel__row anps-betting-match-panel__head anps-betting-well\"><span class=\"anps-betting-match-panel__cell\">Team<\/span><span class=\"anps-betting-match-panel__cell\">Last five<\/span><span class=\"anps-betting-match-panel__cell\">For<\/span><span class=\"anps-betting-match-panel__cell\">Ag<\/span><\/div><div class=\"anps-betting-match-panel__row\"><span class=\"anps-betting-match-panel__cell\"><b>Vasquez<\/b><span class=\"anps-betting-match-panel__sub\">Four of his last six went the distance<\/span><\/span><span class=\"anps-betting-match-panel__cell anps-betting-match-panel__pills\"><span class=\"anps-betting-match-panel__form is-w\">W<\/span><span class=\"anps-betting-match-panel__form is-w\">W<\/span><span class=\"anps-betting-match-panel__form is-l\">L<\/span><span class=\"anps-betting-match-panel__form is-w\">W<\/span><span class=\"anps-betting-match-panel__form is-w\">W<\/span><\/span><span class=\"anps-betting-match-panel__cell is-display\">4 of 6<\/span><span class=\"anps-betting-match-panel__cell is-display\">\u2014<\/span><\/div><div class=\"anps-betting-match-panel__row\"><span class=\"anps-betting-match-panel__cell\"><b>Alveira<\/b><span class=\"anps-betting-match-panel__sub\">Taken past round two twice this year<\/span><\/span><span class=\"anps-betting-match-panel__cell anps-betting-match-panel__pills\"><span class=\"anps-betting-match-panel__form is-w\">W<\/span><span class=\"anps-betting-match-panel__form is-w\">W<\/span><span class=\"anps-betting-match-panel__form is-w\">W<\/span><span class=\"anps-betting-match-panel__form is-l\">L<\/span><span class=\"anps-betting-match-panel__form is-w\">W<\/span><\/span><span class=\"anps-betting-match-panel__cell is-display\">2 of 5<\/span><span class=\"anps-betting-match-panel__cell is-display\">\u2014<\/span><\/div><\/div><\/div>\n\n<div class=\"is-h2h anps-betting-match-panel wp-block-sportpulse-betting-match-panel\"><h2 class=\"anps-betting-match-panel__heading\" id=\"head-to-head\">Head to head<\/h2><div class=\"anps-betting-match-panel__table anps-betting-card\"><div class=\"anps-betting-match-panel__row anps-betting-match-panel__head anps-betting-well\"><span class=\"anps-betting-match-panel__cell \">Date<\/span><span class=\"anps-betting-match-panel__cell \">Result<\/span><span class=\"anps-betting-match-panel__cell is-end\">2.5<\/span><\/div><div class=\"anps-betting-match-panel__row rowlift\"><span class=\"anps-betting-match-panel__cell anps-betting-match-panel__date\">No previous meeting<\/span><span class=\"anps-betting-match-panel__cell\"><b>First fight between the two<\/b><span class=\"anps-betting-match-panel__sub\">Las Vegas<\/span><\/span><span class=\"anps-betting-match-panel__cell is-end\"><span class=\"anps-betting-match-panel__ou is-under\">Under<\/span><\/span><\/div><\/div><\/div>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"is-numbers anps-betting-match-panel wp-block-sportpulse-betting-match-panel\"><h2 class=\"anps-betting-match-panel__heading\" id=\"key-numbers\">Key numbers<\/h2><div class=\"anps-betting-match-panel__grid is-numbers\"><div class=\"anps-betting-match-panel__number anps-betting-card\"><span class=\"anps-betting-tile is-bg2 is-34\"><svg class=\"anps-icon\" width=\"15\" height=\"15\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" aria-hidden=\"true\" focusable=\"false\"><use href=\"#anps-i-trending-up\"><\/use><\/svg><\/span><span class=\"anps-betting-match-panel__value\">4 of 6<\/span><span class=\"anps-betting-match-panel__label\">Vasquez fights that went the distance<\/span><\/div><div class=\"anps-betting-match-panel__number anps-betting-card\"><span class=\"anps-betting-tile is-bg2 is-34\"><svg class=\"anps-icon\" width=\"15\" height=\"15\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" aria-hidden=\"true\" focusable=\"false\"><use href=\"#anps-i-activity\"><\/use><\/svg><\/span><span class=\"anps-betting-match-panel__value\">2<\/span><span class=\"anps-betting-match-panel__label\">times Alveira has been taken past round two this year<\/span><\/div><div class=\"anps-betting-match-panel__number anps-betting-card\"><span class=\"anps-betting-tile is-bg2 is-34\"><svg class=\"anps-icon\" width=\"15\" height=\"15\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" aria-hidden=\"true\" focusable=\"false\"><use href=\"#anps-i-target\"><\/use><\/svg><\/span><span class=\"anps-betting-match-panel__value\">2.05<\/span><span class=\"anps-betting-match-panel__label\">implied 48.8%; we made the distance a slight favourite<\/span><\/div><div class=\"anps-betting-match-panel__number anps-betting-card\"><span class=\"anps-betting-tile is-bg2 is-34\"><svg class=\"anps-icon\" width=\"15\" height=\"15\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" aria-hidden=\"true\" focusable=\"false\"><use href=\"#anps-i-trending-down\"><\/use><\/svg><\/span><span class=\"anps-betting-match-panel__value\">R2<\/span><span class=\"anps-betting-match-panel__label\">the settled finish, by submission at 3:41<\/span><\/div><\/div><\/div>\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"wrong\">What went wrong<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Alveira closed the range with a single-leg in the second, and from top position the finish took ninety seconds. The scenario that beats a distance bet in heavyweight MMA is a takedown against a striker who does not want the floor, and that is exactly what a one-bar rating is for. The early markets on a small card are thin and move hard on late news; the fight-week price, at 1.95, would have been a slightly smaller loss.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Alveira has been taken past the second round twice this year, and Vasquez\u2019s reach makes an early finish unlikely either way.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":23,"featured_media":33830,"template":"","spx_comp":[379],"spx_fixture_ref":[540],"spx_access":[429],"spx_result":[460],"spx_pick_state":[514],"spx_market":[423],"spx_sport":[480],"spx_flag":[],"class_list":["post-38283","spx_prediction","type-spx_prediction","status-publish","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","spx_sport-mma"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/preview.sportpulse.anpsthemes.com\/betting\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/spx_prediction\/38283","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/preview.sportpulse.anpsthemes.com\/betting\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/spx_prediction"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/preview.sportpulse.anpsthemes.com\/betting\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/spx_prediction"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/preview.sportpulse.anpsthemes.com\/betting\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/23"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/preview.sportpulse.anpsthemes.com\/betting\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/33830"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/preview.sportpulse.anpsthemes.com\/betting\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=38283"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"spx_comp","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/preview.sportpulse.anpsthemes.com\/betting\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/spx_comp?post=38283"},{"taxonomy":"spx_fixture_ref","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/preview.sportpulse.anpsthemes.com\/betting\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/spx_fixture_ref?post=38283"},{"taxonomy":"spx_access","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/preview.sportpulse.anpsthemes.com\/betting\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/spx_access?post=38283"},{"taxonomy":"spx_result","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/preview.sportpulse.anpsthemes.com\/betting\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/spx_result?post=38283"},{"taxonomy":"spx_pick_state","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/preview.sportpulse.anpsthemes.com\/betting\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/spx_pick_state?post=38283"},{"taxonomy":"spx_market","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/preview.sportpulse.anpsthemes.com\/betting\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/spx_market?post=38283"},{"taxonomy":"spx_sport","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/preview.sportpulse.anpsthemes.com\/betting\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/spx_sport?post=38283"},{"taxonomy":"spx_flag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/preview.sportpulse.anpsthemes.com\/betting\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/spx_flag?post=38283"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}