Pelagic posted the title game prices on 9 June this year, three weeks earlier than any operator managed last season, and four of the other fourteen followed within a fortnight. The early books were soft \u2014 we measured a 21% overround on Pelagic\u2019s opening market against 14% on the same market a month later \u2014 and two teams shortened by more than a point before training camp opened.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The softness is structural. An outright market posted in June is built on last season\u2019s results and an offseason of guesswork, and the operator prices it wide to protect itself against the guesswork being wrong. As information arrives \u2014 camp reports, preseason snaps, injuries \u2014 the market tightens and the wide early prices on the teams the information favours disappear. This year Prairie went from 8.00 to 6.50 between the opening and the first preseason game.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Whether the early market is value depends on the direction: a 21% overround means most early prices are worse than they will become, and only the ones on teams the summer favours improve. The ante-post guide covers the arithmetic, and Pelagic remains the operator with the earliest and deepest outright books in our guide \u2014 with, as its review notes, no cash-out on any of them.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Title-game prices were posted in June this year, and the early books were noticeably softer.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":23,"featured_media":33830,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_spx_person_id":0,"_spx_fixture_id":0,"_spx_pick_id":0,"_spx_eg_facts_label":"","_spx_eg_facts":"","_spx_figure_caption":"June prices on a February game: the earliest the market has ever opened, and the softest.","_spx_news_feat":"","_spx_video_url":"","_spx_duration":"","_spx_views":"","_spx_presenter":"","_spx_media_state":"","_spx_start_at":"","_spx_media_status":"","_spx_episode":"","_spx_subject":"","_spx_subject_role":"","_spx_story_year":"","_spx_duration_seconds":0,"_spx_view_count":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[53],"tags":[206,242,243],"spx_comp":[],"spx_fixture_ref":[],"spx_series":[],"spx_format":[],"spx_video_kind":[],"spx_show":[],"spx_sport":[],"spx_flag":[],"class_list":["post-38295","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-markets","tag-gridiron","tag-market-movement","tag-markets"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/preview.sportpulse.anpsthemes.com\/betting\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/38295","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/preview.sportpulse.anpsthemes.com\/betting\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/preview.sportpulse.anpsthemes.com\/betting\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/preview.sportpulse.anpsthemes.com\/betting\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/23"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/preview.sportpulse.anpsthemes.com\/betting\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=38295"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/preview.sportpulse.anpsthemes.com\/betting\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/38295\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/preview.sportpulse.anpsthemes.com\/betting\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/33830"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/preview.sportpulse.anpsthemes.com\/betting\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=38295"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/preview.sportpulse.anpsthemes.com\/betting\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=38295"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/preview.sportpulse.anpsthemes.com\/betting\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=38295"},{"taxonomy":"spx_comp","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/preview.sportpulse.anpsthemes.com\/betting\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/spx_comp?post=38295"},{"taxonomy":"spx_fixture_ref","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/preview.sportpulse.anpsthemes.com\/betting\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/spx_fixture_ref?post=38295"},{"taxonomy":"spx_series","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/preview.sportpulse.anpsthemes.com\/betting\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/spx_series?post=38295"},{"taxonomy":"spx_format","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/preview.sportpulse.anpsthemes.com\/betting\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/spx_format?post=38295"},{"taxonomy":"spx_video_kind","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/preview.sportpulse.anpsthemes.com\/betting\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/spx_video_kind?post=38295"},{"taxonomy":"spx_show","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/preview.sportpulse.anpsthemes.com\/betting\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/spx_show?post=38295"},{"taxonomy":"spx_sport","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/preview.sportpulse.anpsthemes.com\/betting\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/spx_sport?post=38295"},{"taxonomy":"spx_flag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/preview.sportpulse.anpsthemes.com\/betting\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/spx_flag?post=38295"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}